← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3572980
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?
57.0% implied · bid 55.0¢ · ask 59.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 60.0%, up 16.0pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability60.0%
Bid / ask / mid55.0¢ / 59.0¢ / 57.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (7.0%)
Change 24h+16.00pt
Change 7d+22.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 31/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7,668
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$193 / $844
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 64 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.67
RSI (14, hourly)63.8
Realized vol 7d2.97pt
Change 1h+5.50pt
E · Time & structure
No fixed resolution date.
Time to resolveno fixed date
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%