← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3572981
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?
42.0% implied · bid 41.0¢ · ask 43.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 38.0%, up 18.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability38.0%
Bid / ask / mid41.0¢ / 43.0¢ / 42.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (4.8%)
Change 24h+18.50pt
Change 7d+22.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 21% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,192
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$174 / $394
Imbalance21% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 76 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.14
RSI (14, hourly)75.9
Realized vol 7d3.52pt
Change 1h+16.00pt
E · Time & structure
No fixed resolution date.
Time to resolveno fixed date
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%