← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3573013

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?

99.9% implied · bid 99.8¢ · ask 99.9¢

The market prices this at 99.5%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability99.5%

Bid / ask / mid99.8¢ / 99.9¢ / 99.9¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)

Change 24h+0.10pt

Change 7d+5.90pt

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 86% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$234

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$366 / $161

Imbalance86% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score49.8 / 100

RSI 43 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.88

RSI (14, hourly)42.9

Realized vol 7d0.62pt

Change 1h+0.05pt

Resolves in 117d 5h.

Time to resolve117d 5h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%