← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3573014

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

82.8% implied · bid 80.7¢ · ask 85.0¢

The market prices this at 82.9%, up 10.3pt over 24h, on a 4.3¢ spread.

Implied probability82.9%

Bid / ask / mid80.7¢ / 85.0¢ / 82.8¢

Spread4.3¢ (5.2%)

Change 24h+10.25pt

Change 7d+14.35pt

Thin (score 29/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 20% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$788

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$40 / $151

Imbalance20% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score28.6 / 100

RSI 44 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.75

RSI (14, hourly)44.3

Realized vol 7d2.84pt

Change 1h+0.10pt

Resolves in 117d 5h.

Time to resolve117d 5h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%