← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3580932
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 60.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability60.0%
Bid / ask / mid59.0¢ / 60.0¢ / 59.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.7%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d-6.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 70/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$41,974
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$28,934 / $21,518
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score70.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.27
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.69pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 40d 3h.
Time to resolve40d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.