← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3584361
Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026?
6.5% implied · bid 3.1¢ · ask 9.8¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 14.0%, down 1.7pt over 24h, on a 6.7¢ spread.
Implied probability14.0%
Bid / ask / mid3.1¢ / 9.8¢ / 6.5¢
Spread6.7¢ (103.9%)
Change 24h-1.65pt
Change 7d-20.05pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 17/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9 / $116
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score16.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 49 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.43
RSI (14, hourly)49.3
Realized vol 7d1.96pt
Change 1h-2.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 10d 9h.
Time to resolve10d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%