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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3584362

Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?

68.5% implied · bid 68.0¢ · ask 69.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 68.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability68.0%
Bid / ask / mid68.0¢ / 69.0¢ / 68.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.5%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-8.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 52% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$426
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,536 / $188
Imbalance52% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.9 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.53
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.86pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 56d 9h.

Time to resolve56d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth