← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3669895

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?

66.5% implied · bid 66.0¢ · ask 67.0¢

The market prices this at 67.0%, up 6.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability67.0%

Bid / ask / mid66.0¢ / 67.0¢ / 66.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.5%)

Change 24h+6.50pt

Change 7d-20.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 28% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$5,930

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$946 / $1,413

Imbalance28% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score46.2 / 100

RSI 20 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.05

RSI (14, hourly)20.0

Realized vol 7d3.41pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 25d 9h.

Time to resolve25d 9h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%