← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3685220
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?
79.5% implied · bid 79.0¢ · ask 80.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 80.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability80.0%
Bid / ask / mid79.0¢ / 80.0¢ / 79.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.3%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+24.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 53% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$313
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$495 / $577
Imbalance53% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.09
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.16pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 117d 10h.
Time to resolve117d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%