← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3685221
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?
66.5% implied · bid 66.0¢ · ask 67.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 66.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability66.0%
Bid / ask / mid66.0¢ / 67.0¢ / 66.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.5%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+13.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$185 / $1,288
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.18
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.05pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 117d 10h.
Time to resolve117d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%