← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3685222
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?
40.5% implied · bid 40.0¢ · ask 41.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 40.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability40.0%
Bid / ask / mid40.0¢ / 41.0¢ / 40.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.5%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 44% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$159 / $84
Imbalance44% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.67
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.66pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 117d 10h.
Time to resolve117d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%