← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3685223
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?
26.0% implied · bid 25.0¢ · ask 27.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 27.0%, up 7.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability27.0%
Bid / ask / mid25.0¢ / 27.0¢ / 26.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (7.7%)
Change 24h+7.00pt
Change 7d-5.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 46% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,949
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$269 / $223
Imbalance46% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.29
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d1.81pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 117d 10h.
Time to resolve117d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%