← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3701629
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?
2.7% implied · bid 2.4¢ · ask 3.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, up 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.4¢ / 3.0¢ / 2.7¢
Spread0.6¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h+0.25pt
Change 7d-4.30pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$34,443
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$537 / $630
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)6
Liquidity score47.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.79
RSI (14, hourly)65.0
Realized vol 7d0.28pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 11d 11h.
Time to resolve11d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%