← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3701662
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
7.5% implied · bid 7.0¢ · ask 8.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability7.0%
Bid / ask / mid7.0¢ / 8.0¢ / 7.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (13.3%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-3.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,357
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,273 / $806
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.77
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.29pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 25d 9h.
Time to resolve25d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%