← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3701687
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
45.5% implied · bid 44.0¢ · ask 47.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 47.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability47.0%
Bid / ask / mid44.0¢ / 47.0¢ / 45.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (6.6%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7d+9.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 37/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$32,913
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,611 / $1,485
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score36.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.83
RSI (14, hourly)44.1
Realized vol 7d3.24pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 207d 9h.
Time to resolve207d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%