← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3701688
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
54.0% implied · bid 53.0¢ · ask 55.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 55.0%, up 7.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability55.0%
Bid / ask / mid53.0¢ / 55.0¢ / 54.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.7%)
Change 24h+7.00pt
Change 7d+3.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$15,236
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,785 / $3,444
Imbalance18% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score42.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 73 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.20
RSI (14, hourly)72.7
Realized vol 7d0.94pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 299d 11h.
Time to resolve299d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%