← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3748407

Will AfD win less than 39% of all valid second votes?

15.5% implied · bid 15.0¢ · ask 16.0¢

The market prices this at 10.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability10.0%

Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (6.5%)

Change 24h+2.50pt

Change 7d+3.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$422

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,158 / $495

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.8 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.22

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.77pt

Change 1h+1.00pt

Resolves in 2d 7h.

Time to resolve2d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%