← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3748408
Will AfD win between 39% and 42% of all valid second votes?
40.5% implied · bid 40.0¢ · ask 41.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 41.0%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability41.0%
Bid / ask / mid40.0¢ / 41.0¢ / 40.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.5%)
Change 24h-4.00pt
Change 7d+1.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 40% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$444
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,051 / $2,056
Imbalance40% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.41
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.64pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 7h.
Time to resolve2d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%