← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3748409
Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?
36.0% implied · bid 35.0¢ · ask 37.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 37.0%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability37.0%
Bid / ask / mid35.0¢ / 37.0¢ / 36.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (5.6%)
Change 24h-3.50pt
Change 7d-6.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,022
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,045 / $1,579
Imbalance13% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 27 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.13
RSI (14, hourly)26.7
Realized vol 7d1.10pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 7h.
Time to resolve2d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%