← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3748410
Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes?
10.5% implied · bid 10.0¢ · ask 11.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability12.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 10.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$965
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$339 / $474
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 90 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.87
RSI (14, hourly)90.0
Realized vol 7d0.37pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 7h.
Time to resolve2d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%