← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3758940
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?
0.6% implied · bid 0.4¢ · ask 0.8¢
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The market prices this at 0.6%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability0.6%
Bid / ask / mid0.4¢ / 0.8¢ / 0.6¢
Spread0.4¢ (66.7%)
Change 24h-0.20pt
Change 7d-2.10pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,022
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$31 / $573
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.51
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d0.15pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 11d 11h.
Time to resolve11d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%