← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3758964
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
9.0% implied · bid 8.0¢ · ask 10.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,721
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,022 / $1,340
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score41.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.39
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.32pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 57d 11h.
Time to resolve57d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%