← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3840177
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?
36.5% implied · bid 34.0¢ · ask 39.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 38.0%, down 9.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability38.0%
Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 39.0¢ / 36.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (13.7%)
Change 24h-9.00pt
Change 7d-17.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 71% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$22,662
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$132 / $77
Imbalance71% bid
Large trades (>$1k)4
Liquidity score25.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 31 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.79
RSI (14, hourly)31.0
Realized vol 7d4.73pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 11d 11h.
Time to resolve11d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%