← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3865960
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 36.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability36.0%
Bid / ask / mid36.0¢ / 37.0¢ / 36.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.7%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$41,347
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,300 / $9,048
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score53.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.02
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d1.01pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.