← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3866001
Will Solana dip to $90 by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 56.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
Implied probability56.0%
Bid / ask / mid48.0¢ / 56.0¢ / 52.0¢
Spread8.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h-2.50pt
Change 7d-5.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$33
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2 / $337
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score10.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.10
RSI (14, hourly)48.0
Realized vol 7d1.56pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 3h.
Time to resolve73d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.