← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3866002
Will Solana dip to $80 by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 32.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability32.0%
Bid / ask / mid28.0¢ / 33.0¢ / 30.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (16.4%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-2.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 26/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$13
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$364 / $1,358
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.19
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.12pt
Change 1h+2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 3h.
Time to resolve73d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.