← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3866004
Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 76.7%, up 0.9pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability76.7%
Bid / ask / mid73.0¢ / 79.0¢ / 76.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (7.9%)
Change 24h+0.90pt
Change 7d+0.90pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 21/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 64% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$339
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$43 / $1,117
Imbalance64% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 22 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.49
RSI (14, hourly)22.2
Realized vol 7d1.62pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 3h.
Time to resolve73d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.