← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3867164
Will Lighter dip to $2.5 before 2027?
36.0% implied · bid 31.0¢ · ask 41.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 39.0%, down 17.5pt over 24h, on a 10.0¢ spread.
Implied probability39.0%
Bid / ask / mid31.0¢ / 41.0¢ / 36.0¢
Spread10.0¢ (27.8%)
Change 24h-17.50pt
Change 7d-32.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 17% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$65
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10 / $4
Imbalance17% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.21
RSI (14, hourly)48.5
Realized vol 7d4.24pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 118d 12h.
Time to resolve118d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%