← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3913254
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
4.2% implied · bid 3.4¢ · ask 5.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.0%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 1.6¢ spread.
Implied probability5.0%
Bid / ask / mid3.4¢ / 5.0¢ / 4.2¢
Spread1.6¢ (38.1%)
Change 24h-0.30pt
Change 7d-0.30pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,653
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$273 / $494
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 31 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.89
RSI (14, hourly)31.3
Realized vol 7d0.09pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 57d 11h.
Time to resolve57d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%