← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3954617
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
26.5% implied · bid 25.0¢ · ask 28.0¢
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The market prices this at 28.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability28.0%
Bid / ask / mid25.0¢ / 28.0¢ / 26.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (11.3%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$40,305
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,537 / $100
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)6
Liquidity score35.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.94
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.83pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 57d 6h.
Time to resolve57d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%