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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3965779

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?

15.0% implied · bid 14.0¢ · ask 16.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 16.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid14.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (13.3%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$13,367
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$649 / $414
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 41 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.67
RSI (14, hourly)40.5
Realized vol 7d1.42pt
Change 1h+1.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 3d 23h.

Time to resolve3d 23h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth