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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3965782

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?

23.5% implied · bid 23.0¢ · ask 24.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 24.0%, up 5.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability24.0%
Bid / ask / mid23.0¢ / 24.0¢ / 23.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h+5.00pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 11% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$7,300
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,004 / $625
Imbalance11% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 90 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.5σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean3.50
RSI (14, hourly)90.0
Realized vol 7d0.47pt
Change 1h+1.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 3d 23h.

Time to resolve3d 23h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth