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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3965785

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?

22.5% implied · bid 22.0¢ · ask 23.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 23.0%, up 6.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability23.0%
Bid / ask / mid22.0¢ / 23.0¢ / 22.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.4%)
Change 24h+6.00pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$8,805
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$704 / $861
Imbalance13% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean3.11
RSI (14, hourly)70.8
Realized vol 7d0.80pt
Change 1h-2.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 3d 23h.

Time to resolve3d 23h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth