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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4050692

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?

17.5% implied · bid 17.0¢ · ask 18.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 18.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 18.0¢ / 17.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.7%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 11% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,536
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$697 / $442
Imbalance11% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 51 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.38
RSI (14, hourly)50.8
Realized vol 7d4.88pt
Change 1h+1.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 6d 23h.

Time to resolve6d 23h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth