← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4054699

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?

13.5% implied · bid 13.0¢ · ask 13.9¢

The market prices this at 12.3%, down 84.6pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.

Implied probability12.3%

Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 13.9¢ / 13.5¢

Spread0.9¢ (6.7%)

Change 24h-84.60pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$118,235

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$892 / $217

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)4

Liquidity score46.1 / 100

RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.41

RSI (14, hourly)33.5

Realized vol 7d10.13pt

Change 1h+5.00pt

Resolves in 0d 6h.

Time to resolve0d 6h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%