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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4054725

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 25, 2026?

98.9% implied · bid 97.9¢ · ask 99.8¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 99.4%, down 0.9pt over 24h, on a 1.9¢ spread.

Implied probability99.4%
Bid / ask / mid97.9¢ / 99.8¢ / 98.9¢
Spread1.9¢ (1.9%)
Change 24h-0.95pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 57% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$3,698
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$487 / $5,205
Imbalance57% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score43.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 32 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.62
RSI (14, hourly)31.8
Realized vol 7d4.62pt
Change 1h-0.05pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 21d 7h.

Time to resolve21d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth