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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4060944

Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 5, 2026?

17.4% implied · bid 15.9¢ · ask 19.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 18.5%, up 16.8pt over 24h, on a 3.1¢ spread.

Implied probability18.5%
Bid / ask / mid15.9¢ / 19.0¢ / 17.4¢
Spread3.1¢ (17.8%)
Change 24h+16.75pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$11,749
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$122 / $210
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score34.7 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 70 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.09
RSI (14, hourly)69.6
Realized vol 7d7.06pt
Change 1h+1.55pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1d 7h.

Time to resolve1d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth