Refacto TerminalPolymarket
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4060947

Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 8, 2026?

15.0% implied · bid 14.2¢ · ask 15.8¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 14.5%, up 14.5pt over 24h, on a 1.6¢ spread.

Implied probability14.5%
Bid / ask / mid14.2¢ / 15.8¢ / 15.0¢
Spread1.6¢ (10.7%)
Change 24h+14.55pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$4,942
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$107 / $115
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 37 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.85
RSI (14, hourly)36.8
Realized vol 7d4.31pt
Change 1h-1.40pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 4d 7h.

Time to resolve4d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth