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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4060948

Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 9, 2026?

25.1% implied · bid 25.0¢ · ask 25.1¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 25.0%, up 24.6pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability25.0%
Bid / ask / mid25.0¢ / 25.1¢ / 25.1¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.4%)
Change 24h+24.60pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$7,904
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,004 / $335
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.7 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.03
RSI (14, hourly)66.5
Realized vol 7d4.92pt
Change 1h-1.80pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 5d 7h.

Time to resolve5d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth