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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4080251

Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?

42.0% implied · bid 40.0¢ · ask 44.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 40.0%, down 14.0pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability40.0%
Bid / ask / mid40.0¢ / 44.0¢ / 42.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h-14.00pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 22% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$4,392
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$121 / $385
Imbalance22% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 6 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.47
RSI (14, hourly)5.7
Realized vol 7d4.86pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 2d 11h.

Time to resolve2d 11h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth