← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4082026
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.9%, down 0.7pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability5.9%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 6.4¢ / 6.2¢
Spread0.4¢ (6.5%)
Change 24h-0.65pt
Change 7d+0.05pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,470
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$349 / $668
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.52
RSI (14, hourly)25.0
Realized vol 7d2.54pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 22h.
Time to resolve0d 22h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (20)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.