← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4095052
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
38.5% implied · bid 38.0¢ · ask 39.0¢
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The market prices this at 38.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability38.0%
Bid / ask / mid38.0¢ / 39.0¢ / 38.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.6%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$67,995
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$177 / $636
Imbalance13% bid
Large trades (>$1k)6
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.73
RSI (14, hourly)43.1
Realized vol 7d4.29pt
Change 1h-9.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 6h.
Time to resolve0d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%