← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4095053
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
62.5% implied · bid 62.0¢ · ask 63.0¢
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The market prices this at 63.0%, up 7.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability63.0%
Bid / ask / mid62.0¢ / 63.0¢ / 62.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.6%)
Change 24h+7.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 41% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,655
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$483 / $688
Imbalance41% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 76 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.94
RSI (14, hourly)76.2
Realized vol 7d1.54pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 7d 7h.
Time to resolve7d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%