← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4095054
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?
70.5% implied · bid 70.0¢ · ask 71.0¢
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The market prices this at 70.0%, up 6.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability70.0%
Bid / ask / mid70.0¢ / 71.0¢ / 70.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.4%)
Change 24h+6.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,528
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$573 / $1,687
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 76 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.40
RSI (14, hourly)76.0
Realized vol 7d4.26pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 14d 7h.
Time to resolve14d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%