← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4095055
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?
76.0% implied · bid 74.0¢ · ask 78.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 75.0%, up 8.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability75.0%
Bid / ask / mid74.0¢ / 78.0¢ / 76.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (5.3%)
Change 24h+8.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 31/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 60% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$23,631
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,181 / $1,154
Imbalance60% bid
Large trades (>$1k)4
Liquidity score31.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 76 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.06
RSI (14, hourly)76.2
Realized vol 7d2.15pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 26d 7h.
Time to resolve26d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%