← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4118936

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?

26.0% implied · bid 25.0¢ · ask 27.0¢

The market prices this at 26.0%, up 4.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability26.0%

Bid / ask / mid25.0¢ / 27.0¢ / 26.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (7.7%)

Change 24h+4.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,009

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$94 / $41

Imbalance16% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score40.1 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.16

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d5.10pt

Change 1h+1.50pt

Resolves in 41d 6h.

Time to resolve41d 6h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%