← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4118938
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 29.0%, up 12.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability29.0%
Bid / ask / mid31.0¢ / 32.0¢ / 31.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.2%)
Change 24h+12.50pt
Change 7d-3.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$33,093
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$37 / $1,834
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score45.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 93 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.27
RSI (14, hourly)92.9
Realized vol 7d0.95pt
Change 1h+2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 42d 0h.
Time to resolve42d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.