← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4168072
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
49.5% implied · bid 49.0¢ · ask 50.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 52.0%, up 5.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability52.0%
Bid / ask / mid49.0¢ / 50.0¢ / 49.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.0%)
Change 24h+5.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 75% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$10,133
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,345 / $13
Imbalance75% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 55 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.08
RSI (14, hourly)54.8
Realized vol 7d2.26pt
Change 1h-4.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 6h.
Time to resolve3d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%