← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4170754
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (8.7%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
Longshot tax-60% historically (0-10¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$977
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$272 / $936
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 89 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.46
RSI (14, hourly)88.9
Realized vol 7d2.08pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 51d 0h.
Time to resolve51d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 0-10¢ bucket has returned -60% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.