← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4170755
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.7%, down 0.7pt over 24h, on a 2.2¢ spread.
Implied probability1.7%
Bid / ask / mid1.4¢ / 3.6¢ / 2.5¢
Spread2.2¢ (88.0%)
Change 24h-0.70pt
Change 7d-1.35pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 39/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$82 / $69
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score39.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.10
RSI (14, hourly)47.3
Realized vol 7d1.42pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 50d 22h.
Time to resolve50d 22h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.